Decision intelligence for leaders.
What is moving in your sector, what it means for you in the next 12 to 36 months, and what to decide. A weekly Radar of the signals that matter, a monthly Brief for each sector, and every call scored in public.
- 15sectors
- 8regions of the world
- WeeklyRadar of high-impact signals
- 53calls, scored in public
This week, on one page.
This week's high-impact signals, labelled, against every live signal from the monthly Briefs. Closer to the centre means it bites sooner. Bigger dots hit more sectors.
This week's signals
- Hormuz faces a deal-or-strikes test, with Brent near $110Energy & Industry, Transport & Logistics, Insurance & Risk, Government & Public Finance · Now · New
- Korea's chip exports more than tripled in October as memory runs shortTechnology & AI, Energy & Industry, Retail & Consumer, Transport & Logistics · Now · Strengthening
- Central banks are turning back to rate rises as oil-led inflation bitesBanking & Finance, Cities & Real Estate, Work & Talent · Now · Strengthening
- European gas has traded above €100 for the first time since 2022Energy & Industry, Cities & Real Estate, Banking & Finance · Now · Strengthening
- The EU now charges €2 per item on cheap online importsRetail & Consumer, Transport & Logistics · Now · New
- France slipped into contraction as MPs rewrite its 2027 budgetGovernment & Public Finance, Banking & Finance · Now · Strengthening
- A new US rule makes pharmacy benefit managers open their books to employersHealth & Life Sciences, Work & Talent · 6 to 12 months · New
- Big Tech's AI spending now exceeds the cash its operations bring inTechnology & AI, Banking & Finance · 6 to 12 months · New
- Chile's copper output hit a 20-year quarterly low and the 2027 recovery was cutMining & Critical Minerals, Energy & Industry · 6 to 12 months · New
See all 54 signals
Energy and resources
- Attacks around Hormuz are rising again, and so is the cost of moving goods past them.Transport & Logistics · Now
- Europe starts the heating season with its thinnest gas cushion in fifteen years.Energy & Industry · Now
- Hormuz faces a deal-or-strikes test, with Brent near $110Energy & Industry, Transport & Logistics, Insurance & Risk, Government & Public Finance · Now
- In America’s largest grid, power for data centres is short and the rules are unsettled.Technology & AI · Now
- Jet fuel has doubled, and airlines are passing it on through fares and fewer seats.Travel & Hospitality · Now
- European gas has traded above €100 for the first time since 2022Energy & Industry, Cities & Real Estate, Banking & Finance · Now
- Air cargo is growing fast, but the fuel to fly it has doubled in price.Transport & Logistics · Now
- Fertiliser is the slow fuse of the Hormuz crisis.Food & Agribusiness · 6 to 12 months
- El Niño moves the squeeze into 2027.Food & Agribusiness · 6 to 12 months
- Data centres are taking the grid capacity industry needs to electrify.Energy & Industry · 6 to 12 months
- Copper is short at the mine, and smelters are paying for it.Mining & Critical Minerals · 6 to 12 months
- SK hynix says its memory is effectively sold out to 2029, and big customers have booked first.Technology & AI · 6 to 12 months
- Lithium's rally has reversed: the futures price has roughly halved since May.Mining & Critical Minerals · 6 to 12 months
- Chile's copper output hit a 20-year quarterly low and the 2027 recovery was cutMining & Critical Minerals, Energy & Industry · 6 to 12 months
- The grid now decides where cities can grow.Cities & Real Estate · 12 to 36 months
Money and markets
- Both the Fed and the ECB are raising rates again.Banking & Finance · Now
- Long-term government borrowing costs have climbed to their highest in two decades or more.Government & Public Finance · Now
- Hormuz has turned war risk into a standing cost.Insurance & Risk · Now
- Rates are rising again, into a wall of maturing debt.Cities & Real Estate · Now
- Central banks are turning back to rate rises as oil-led inflation bitesBanking & Finance, Cities & Real Estate, Work & Talent · Now
- The largest cloud firms are spending more on AI, and say 2027 will be higher.Technology & AI · 6 to 12 months
- Private credit now shows up in official data, and its investors want out.Banking & Finance · 6 to 12 months
- Defence and energy support are taking the fiscal room that was left.Government & Public Finance · 6 to 12 months
- Reinsurance is softening into what may be the strongest El Niño on record.Insurance & Risk · 6 to 12 months
- Container ships are returning to Suez just as a large wave of new ships arrives.Transport & Logistics · 6 to 12 months
- Big Tech's AI spending now exceeds the cash its operations bring inTechnology & AI, Banking & Finance · 6 to 12 months
- Telecom consolidation is moving in Italy and France.Media & Telecoms · 12 to 36 months
Rules and power
- Reported state-linked attacks have caused outages, and EU reporting duties are now live.Defence & Security · Now
- China's rare-earth suspension legally ends on 10 November, with only a verbal promise to extend it.Mining & Critical Minerals · Now
- The carbon border charge becomes a real bill in February.Energy & Industry · Now
- US tariffs now rest on firmer law, and cheap parcels pay duty on both sides of the Atlantic.Retail & Consumer · Now
- Dollar stablecoins get a federal rulebook in January.Banking & Finance · Now
- US tariffs on branded medicines are now in force for everyone without a deal.Health & Life Sciences · Now
- The EU now charges €2 per item on cheap online importsRetail & Consumer, Transport & Logistics · Now
- France slipped into contraction as MPs rewrite its 2027 budgetGovernment & Public Finance, Banking & Finance · Now
- AI risk is being written out of standard policies.Insurance & Risk · 6 to 12 months
- EU rearmament loans are now being paid, with a rule that favours European content.Defence & Security · 6 to 12 months
- Europe can now fine AI model makers that ignore its copyright duties.Media & Telecoms · 6 to 12 months
- A new US rule makes pharmacy benefit managers open their books to employersHealth & Life Sciences, Work & Talent · 6 to 12 months
- US government AI buying is moving from $1 trials to paid contracts with tighter data rules.Government & Public Finance · 6 to 12 months
- Europe's new border checks are now strict, and the next step looks likely to slip to 2027.Travel & Hospitality · 6 to 12 months
- Europe’s two big workplace rules have slipped, but neither has gone away.Work & Talent · 12 to 36 months
- The Iran war has turned air-defence interceptors into a multi-year buying programme.Defence & Security · 12 to 36 months
- EU ministers have signed off shorter baseline protection for new medicines.Health & Life Sciences · 12 to 36 months
People and demand
- Hiring is stalling and pay growth is easing, for now.Work & Talent · Now
- Energy, not food, is now driving inflation and draining discretionary budgets.Retail & Consumer · Now
- Korea's chip exports more than tripled in October as memory runs shortTechnology & AI, Energy & Industry, Retail & Consumer, Transport & Logistics · Now
- Google search is sending far fewer readers to publishers.Media & Telecoms · Now
- Travel growth has stalled, and the Gulf hubs are taking the hardest hit.Travel & Hospitality · Now
- Some employers are dropping obesity drugs as Medicare buys them at a low price.Health & Life Sciences · 6 to 12 months
- The office recovery is real, but only at the top.Cities & Real Estate · 6 to 12 months
- AI is thinning the bottom rung of the career ladder.Work & Talent · 12 to 36 months
- Your customers are eating less, on purpose.Food & Agribusiness · 12 to 36 months
- AI shopping agents won a key court ruling, and Adobe expects their traffic to more than double.Retail & Consumer · 12 to 36 months
This month's briefs.
One brief for each sector: three shifts, what they mean for you, and the decision on the table. One is free to read; subscribers read everything.
The 2027 harvest is being priced now.
Three shifts will set your input costs, your supply and your demand over the next eighteen months. Two are on the farm. One is on your customers’ plates.
- 01Fertiliser is the slow fuse of the Hormuz crisis.
- 02El Niño moves the squeeze into 2027.
- 03Your customers are eating less, on purpose.
Money is getting dearer just as the loans fall due.
Three shifts will decide which buildings keep their value over the next two years: the cost of capital, the split in the office market, and who gets a grid connection.
Energy & IndustryEurope enters winter short of gas, just as the carbon bill arrives.
Three shifts will shape energy-intensive industry over the next two years: a gas market with no spare cushion, a border carbon charge that becomes a real invoice, and a grid that cannot connect everyone who wants power.
Insurance & RiskCover is getting cheaper just as the risks get stranger.
Three shifts will shape insurance results over the next two years: a buyers’ reinsurance market heading into a possibly record El Niño, war risk in the Gulf, and AI being written out of standard policies.
Work & TalentAI is closing the entry door just as hiring cools.
Three shifts will shape workforce plans over the next two years: fewer junior roles, slipping but stubborn EU rules, and a labour market that is softening for now.
Banking & FinanceMoney costs more, and private credit investors are queuing to get out.
Three shifts will shape finance balance sheets for two years: rising rates, a liquidity squeeze in private credit, and a federal rulebook for stablecoins. Each one moved money or rules between August and October.
Technology & AIAI spending keeps rising, and the bottlenecks are now memory and power.
Three shifts will shape technology budgets to 2028: rising cloud AI spending, a memory shortage, and a power squeeze in America’s largest grid. In our reading, the biggest buyers are served first in each, and everyone else pays more or waits.
Health & Life SciencesWhat a new medicine can earn is being reset on both sides of the Atlantic.
Three shifts will shape revenue over the next two years. US tariffs bite unless prices track other rich countries, obesity drugs are moving to cheaper channels, and the EU is cutting baseline protection.
Retail & ConsumerEnergy is eating the shopping budget just as the rules of buying change.
Three shifts will shape retail and consumer brands to 2028: energy-led inflation, import duties on firmer legal ground, and AI shopping agents. Each moves margins, and each needs a decision before the spring buying cycle.
Transport & LogisticsWar and fuel push transport costs up, while returning ships and new tonnage point to lower sea freight rates.
Three shifts will shape transport budgets for 2027. Attacks are rising around Hormuz, container ships are returning to Suez, and air cargo is growing while jet fuel has doubled.
Defence & SecurityThe arsenal is being refilled, and the pressure is moving down the supply chain.
Three shifts will shape the sector over the next two years: multi-year US munitions buying after the Iran war, EU rearmament loans now paid out with a buy-European rule, and reported state-linked cyber attacks that have caused outages. Each moves money, rules or risk onto suppliers, not just prime contractors.
Mining & Critical MineralsCopper is scarce, rare earths face a deadline and lithium is cheap again.
Three shifts matter this month: a copper market so tight that smelters now pay miners for ore, China's rare-earth legal deadline on 10 November, and a lithium price that has roughly halved since May. Each calls for a decision before the year ends.
Government & Public FinanceGovernments pay more to borrow just as defence and energy claim the room they had left.
Three shifts will shape public budgets and the firms that depend on them over the next two years: higher sovereign borrowing costs, the squeeze from defence and energy support, and new terms for how governments buy AI. Each one has already moved money or contracts this autumn.
Media & TelecomsSearch is sending fewer readers, and telecoms is shrinking to fewer, larger players.
Three shifts will shape the sector over the next two years: the steep fall in search traffic to publishers, telecom consolidation in Italy and France, and EU powers to fine AI model makers. Each one moves money, and each one needs a decision before spring.
Travel & HospitalityTravel is getting dearer and slower just as demand stops growing.
Three shifts will shape travel businesses over the next two years: jet fuel at about twice last year's price, a stall in demand led by the Gulf hubs, and slower borders into Europe. Together they are likely to favour firms that price for cost, not for volume.
Built for the decision, not the headline.
The weekly Radar
Every Monday: the high-impact signals of the week across 15 sectors and 8 regions, on one page. Three minutes.
The monthly Brief
For each sector: three shifts, what each means for you, and the decision on the table. Ten minutes, on your phone.
The strategy pack
The evidence behind the biggest shift, by team, with the options in front of you and their trade-offs.
Scored calls
Every call is dated, given a confidence and scored in public against what happened. You can see how far to trust us.
Every call we make, scored in public.
Each brief ends with three calls: dated, measurable and given a confidence. When the date comes, we mark each one right or wrong here, and we never remove a call that missed. Over time this shows how far our judgement can be trusted.
A call is right only if the outcome matches it on the date set, using the source named in the brief. Confidence is how sure we were when we made it: over time, 70% calls should come true about 70% of the time.
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