ForesightScorecard
Scorecard

Every call we make, scored in public.

Each brief ends with three calls: dated, measurable and given a confidence. When the date comes, we mark each one right or wrong here, and we never remove a call that missed. Over time this shows how far our judgement can be trusted.

53Calls made
53Still open
0Scored
–Called right
ICE Brent front-month will settle above $100 a barrel on 30 November 2026. Settled by the ICE settlement price as reported by Reuters. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 65% November 2026 Open
INE's October 2026 figure, due around 30 November 2026, will show Chilean copper output lower year on year. Settled by the INE mining production index. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 75% November 2026 Open
The Fed raises its target range to 4–4.25% at its December 2026 meeting, as stated in the Federal Reserve’s policy statement that day. Banking & Finance 70% December 2026 Open
Korea's November 2026 semiconductor exports will exceed US$50bn. Settled by the trade ministry's release around 1 December 2026. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 70% December 2026 Open
Parliament will not pass the 2027 state budget by an ordinary final vote by 17 December 2026, its 70-day deadline. Settled by Assemblée nationale records and Légifrance. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 70% December 2026 Open
The Fed raises rates again before the end of 2026. Cities & Real Estate 70% January 2027 Open
The fourth-quarter 2026 CBAM certificate price, published on 4 January 2027, is above €80 a tonne. Energy & Industry 60% January 2027 Open
Brokers’ 1 January 2027 renewal reports show global property catastrophe reinsurance rates down 10% or more on average. Insurance & Risk 60% January 2027 Open
Challenger’s full-year count of US job cuts citing AI exceeds 135,000 for 2026. Work & Talent 55% January 2027 Open
Fewer than 10 of 27 EU member states have fully transposed the Pay Transparency Directive by 31 December 2026, per Lockton’s tracker. Work & Talent 70% January 2027 Open
The US unemployment rate is 4.3% or higher in the December 2026 jobs report. Work & Talent 55% January 2027 Open
Blackstone Private Credit Fund receives fourth-quarter 2026 repurchase requests above 5% of its shares, as shown in its SEC filings, by 31 January 2027. Banking & Finance 70% January 2027 Open
The FDIC publishes a final GENIUS Act stablecoin rule before 18 January 2027, as shown by an FDIC press release. Banking & Finance 65% January 2027 Open
PJM’s base capacity auction for 2029–30, scheduled for December, clears at its price cap across the whole region, according to PJM’s published results. Technology & AI 65% January 2027 Open
US consumer price inflation for the year to December 2026, published by the BLS in January 2027, is 3.5% or higher. Retail & Consumer 55% January 2027 Open
Adobe's 2026 holiday season results, due in January 2027, show traffic from AI tools to US retail sites up at least 100% on 2025. Retail & Consumer 65% January 2027 Open
Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s last Strait of Hormuz brief of January 2027 counts fewer than 150 non-Iranian-linked transits in its latest complete week. Transport & Logistics 65% January 2027 Open
CBO’s Monthly Budget Review for October to December 2026 shows US net interest outlays more than 10% higher than a year earlier. Government & Public Finance 65% January 2027 Open
Middle East carriers' November 2026 passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometres) is below November 2025 in IATA's monthly release. Travel & Hospitality 65% January 2027 Open
EU aggregate gas storage will be below 65% full on 1 January 2027. Settled by GIE AGSI+. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 60% January 2027 Open
The Dutch TTF front-month gas price is above €70/MWh on 29 January 2027. Energy & Industry 65% February 2027 Open
Brent crude front-month is above $100 a barrel on 29 January 2027. Energy & Industry 60% February 2027 Open
Gallagher Re’s full-year 2026 global insured catastrophe losses come in below the $128 billion 10-year average. Insurance & Risk 75% February 2027 Open
Alphabet guides 2027 capital spending at or above $250bn, against $195–205bn for 2026, in its fourth-quarter 2026 results. Technology & AI 60% February 2027 Open
SK hynix reports a further quarter-on-quarter rise in its average DRAM selling price in its fourth-quarter 2026 results, due late January 2027. Technology & AI 70% February 2027 Open
IATA’s air cargo market analysis for December 2026 shows jet fuel averaging above $140 a barrel for the month. Transport & Logistics 65% February 2027 Open
China's wider rare-earth rules (MOFCOM Announcement No. 61 of 2025, including the 0.1% rule) are still suspended or withdrawn on 31 January 2027. Settled by MOFCOM's published announcements. Defence & Security 65% February 2027 Open
China's wider rare-earth rules (MOFCOM Announcement No. 61 of 2025, including the 0.1% rule) are still suspended or withdrawn on 31 January 2027. Settled by MOFCOM's published announcements. Mining & Critical Minerals 65% February 2027 Open
Google search revenue (Search & other) grows less than 12% year on year in Alphabet's fourth-quarter 2026 results. Media & Telecoms 60% February 2027 Open
IATA's Jet Fuel Price Monitor shows a global average above $150 a barrel for the last week of January 2027. Travel & Hospitality 60% February 2027 Open
Alphabet will report negative free cash flow for Q4 2026 in results due by early February 2027. Settled by Alphabet's earnings release. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 65% February 2027 Open
A PBM or PBM trade body will file a federal lawsuit against the rule by 31 March 2027. Settled by federal court dockets or trade press. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 60% March 2027 Open
The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 4.5% on 31 March 2027. Cities & Real Estate 65% April 2027 Open
US office vacancy is below 18% in CBRE’s first-quarter 2027 figures. Cities & Real Estate 60% April 2027 Open
The Joint War Committee still lists the Strait of Hormuz as a high-risk area on 31 March 2027. Insurance & Risk 70% April 2027 Open
The White House reports at least 30 drugmakers with MFN pricing deals, in a fact sheet or press release, by 31 March 2027. Health & Life Sciences 60% April 2027 Open
The EU pharma package (regulation and directive) is published in the Official Journal of the EU, as shown on EUR-Lex, by 31 March 2027. Health & Life Sciences 60% April 2027 Open
USTR's Section 301 tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on the 60 economies named in July are still in force on 31 March 2027. Retail & Consumer 70% April 2027 Open
Drewry’s World Container Index composite is below $3,500 per 40ft container in its last assessment of March 2027. Transport & Logistics 60% April 2027 Open
Between 3 November 2026 and 31 March 2027, the US Defense Department announces at least one further munitions contract or framework worth $5bn or more. Settled by its daily contract announcements. Defence & Security 70% April 2027 Open
Total SAFE loan payments to member states, as reported by the European Commission, exceed €20bn by 31 March 2027. Defence & Security 60% April 2027 Open
The LME official cash settlement price for copper is above $12,500 a tonne on 31 March 2027. Mining & Critical Minerals 65% April 2027 Open
The most-traded lithium carbonate contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closes below 120,000 yuan a tonne on 31 March 2027. Mining & Critical Minerals 70% April 2027 Open
The 10-year US Treasury yield is above 4.75% on 31 March 2027, on the US Treasury's daily par yield curve (about 4.93% at end-October). Government & Public Finance 60% April 2027 Open
Britain's 30-year gilt yield is above 5.5% on 31 March 2027, on the Bank of England's published yield data (about 5.67% on 2 November). Government & Public Finance 55% April 2027 Open
The CMA confirms that Google has given UK publishers an opt-out from AI Overviews by 3 March 2027, its nine-month deadline. Media & Telecoms 65% April 2027 Open
ETIAS has not started operating by 31 March 2027, according to the European Commission and the official ETIAS website. Travel & Hospitality 75% April 2027 Open
Phosphate (DAP) averages above $700 a tonne in the first quarter of 2027. Food & Agribusiness 65% April 2027 Open
Cocoa futures average above $5,500 a tonne in the first quarter of 2027. Food & Agribusiness 60% April 2027 Open
FAO’s cereal index is higher in March 2027 than in March 2026. Food & Agribusiness 70% May 2027 Open
The Commission's figure for sub-€150 parcels entering the EU in 2026, due by 30 June 2027, will be below 5.8 billion. Settled by Commission or DG TAXUD publication. Radar · Week of 2 November 2026 60% June 2027 Open
France's Autorité de la concurrence has not issued a final decision on the SFR carve-up by 30 June 2027. Media & Telecoms 75% July 2027 Open
Business Group on Health’s next employer survey, due around August 2027, shows under 60% of employers covering GLP-1 weight-loss drugs (60% in 2026). Health & Life Sciences 65% September 2027 Open

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A call is right only if the outcome matches it on the date set, using the source named in the brief. Confidence is how sure we were when we made it: over time, 70% calls should come true about 70% of the time.

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