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Amsterdam Forum Foresight · Insurance & Risk BriefNovember 2026 · 4-minute read

Cover is getting cheaper just as the risks get stranger.

Three shifts will shape insurance results over the next two years: a buyers’ reinsurance market heading into a possibly record El Niño, war risk in the Gulf, and AI being written out of standard policies.

The CEO page · three shifts, what they mean, what to decide

01Reinsurance

Reinsurance is softening into what may be the strongest El Niño on record.

02War risk

Hormuz has turned war risk into a standing cost.

03AI liability

AI risk is being written out of standard policies.

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