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Amsterdam Forum Foresight · Defence & Security BriefNovember 2026 · 4-minute read

The arsenal is being refilled, and the pressure is moving down the supply chain.

Three shifts will shape the sector over the next two years: multi-year US munitions buying after the Iran war, EU rearmament loans now paid out with a buy-European rule, and reported state-linked cyber attacks that have caused outages. Each moves money, rules or risk onto suppliers, not just prime contractors.

The CEO page · three shifts, what they mean, what to decide

01Munitions

The Iran war has turned air-defence interceptors into a multi-year buying programme.

02Europe

EU rearmament loans are now being paid, with a rule that favours European content.

03Cyber

Reported state-linked attacks have caused outages, and EU reporting duties are now live.

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